reduction of crime rates as a result of the intervention

The impact of the intervention on the cost of crime is estimated by using information on the incidence of crime among Centrepoint’s clients, the likely rate of crime in the counterfactual, and the public costs associated with different types of crime. Data based on crime rates from other sources such as a study by ESRC and other organisations such as Centrepoint offering services to an older cohort of homeless people suggests that the probability of crime would have risen to 44% before delayed intervention. It has been assumed that the delayed intervention would have been as effective as Centrepoint (reducing the probability of crime from 44% to 12% after the delayed intervention, which is a 72% reduction in line with the reduction from 20% to 6% in the factual after Centrepoint’s intervention).