increased probability of finding employment as a result of the programme
Our results show that there is a statistically significant and robust threat effect associated with the programme; programme eligibility increases the probability of finding work before the programme starts by about 7 percent. Figure 2a indicates that there is a significant threat effect, even though it appears to be small: being eligible for the YJG programme (i.e. being under 25 years of age at 90 days of unemployment) increases the probability of finding employment during the first 90 days of the unemployment spell by around 2 percentage points. Taking into account that about 28 percent of the 25?year?olds find employment within 90 days, this would correspond to an increase of about 7 percent.
Beschreibung der Aktivität
The Youth Job Guarantee Programme
The activation programme we study is the Youth Job Guarantee that started in Sweden in December 2007. The programme involves activation that starts after a person has been registered as unemployed at the public employment service (PES) for 90 days, and it involves all unemployed individuals who are under 25 years of age.9 The activation is mandatory for those in the targeted age group, and a refusal to participate could incur sanctions in the form of withdrawn unemployment benefits.
maximum of 15 months in total (normally 3 months for the first phase, 12 months for the second phase)
only individuals under 25 years of age are eligible for the programme startig age: 19 years
teilnehmende Kinder und Jugendliche
Evaluierung der Aktivität
We combine data on individual’s employment status with information on their (past) health and other relevant personal characteristics. The data on unemployment spells come from the register of the Public Employment Service (PES), and the data on health status from hospital and drug registers provided by the National Board of Health and Welfare. Our data cover the entire Swedish population, and we can observe all unemployment periods from 1991 to 24th of February 2010. The YJG programme was introduced in December 2007, and we analyse its effects in 2008 and 2009.15 Our 2008 sample includes all individuals aged 19?29, who became unemployed between October 2007 and September 2008, and therefore became eligible for the programme between January 2008 and December 2008, if they were still unemployed and below 25 years of age at that time. The 2009 sample is constructed in the same manner, but since the data ends in February 2010, we sometimes need to restrict the sampling period in order to follow the unemployment spells long enough (e.g. when studying the probability of finding employment within a year, the sample is limited to spells beginning at least a year before). We use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of the Youth Job Guarantee programme, utilizing the fact that only individuals under 25 years of age were eligible for the programme.
total sample: N = 335 521 young people number of young people from the sample participating in the YJG programme: 45 765
2008 and 2009